Expocheck Reports TM, World Expos

JDP ECON

Expocheck TM,

and the World's Fair Decision Model

WORLD'S FAIR DECISION MODEL

EXPOcheckTM Reports
Expodynamnics, Expocheck, and the World's Fair Decision Model Project

EXPOcheck reports now available for Expo 2008 - Zaragoza (Post) & Expo 2010 - Shanghai
Coming 2010 - EXPOcheck Yeosu 2012 and Milan 2015

JDP ECON is now developing its EXPOcheck series of reports, providing an unbiased, independent review of approved events in the coming years, beginning with Zaragoza and Expo 2008 and Shanghai's Expo 2010. These independent attendance dynamics reports based on the World's Fair Decision Model are great additions to the information provided by official sources and may be useful to public planners, exhibitors, concessionaires, media, and others interested in the upcoming events.

JDP ECON is providing these on an independent basis, and these reports, as well as EXPOdynamics reports, are not available as work-for-hire documents.

What EXPOcheck is all About

EXPOcheckTM reports are meant to provide an ongoing independent analysis of an exposition or world’s fair that has already been approved and is moving toward Opening Day. The associated figures should be used as a check on other planning figures or reported figures. The objective here is to provide a broad-based historical check of estimates, utilizing the World’s Fair (Expo) Decision Model, a ten-year study of past exposition events developed by JDP ECON.

The Expo Decision Model provides a quick, simple, yet comprehensive forecasting tool and sustainability check on other forecasts. An EXPOcheck series of reports attempts to delineate the conclusions provided by the WFDM (EDM), which develops the range of probable attendance, using historic data on past fairs, as well as other criteria, and can be used in developing various strategies amongst the tourism and business industry of the region. It sets forth basic facts about the expo topic, attendance projections, economic considerations, as well as other analysis. An EXPOcheckTM report can be a valuable resource for those on an exposition authority, city and regional government authorities adjunct or involved with that, international and corporate participants, to the media reporting on the fair, as well as to the public and business community which will be affected by an exposition.

EXPOcheckTM REPORTS provides sustainability checks on approved, upcoming expositions, providing background information, executive summary, attendance scenarios (average case, planning estimate, and comparative history node comparisons) compared to estimate, with site density and other analysis.

EXPOcheck TM

EXPOcheck TM Zaragoza's Expo 2008
Post Report 10-1-2008

EXPOcheck Reports

EXPOcheckTM Quick Conclusions - EXPO 2008.

With final numbers on the attendance dynamics of Expo 2008 just in, a quick conclusion on the attendance generation of the Zaragoza Expo brings up several points. Reported attendance at the event reached 5,650,941 visitors, slightly lower than the 6.045 million estimated by the Expo Authority and the 6.6 million planning estimate from JDP ECON. Most thought that Expo 2008 was run efficiently and well planned, but several important decisions occurred that deterred even greater success, even above both planning estimates. The limit on the sale of season tickets, which sold fast and well prior to their limit, cost the Expo visitation. While it is understandable to limit such due to fears of repeat visitation from the local public overwhelming site density numbers, (Zaragossa did get 57.6% of its visitors from the metro area in any case) this is too often a mistake made by Expo authorities. In the same vein, ticket sales at some locations did not allow for pre-sale of tickets for the final two weeks of expo days. Don't truncate sales. They mean visits, profit, and great word of mouth. International visitors to the expo were lower than expected, only 3.6% of the attendance. Future expos, particularly the new "recognized" three month event must find a better avenue to spur such attendance. Additional use of televised events prior to opening day (the Closing Ceremony was viewed by 54 million; some of these must be viewing prior to Opening Day) and perhaps a detwinning of the Olympic Games with the Expo year, particularly if that Games occur during the duration of the expo, should be considered. Expo 2008 should be proud of their success in the first of its kind "recognized" expo category. Now on to Shanghai, Yeosu, and Milan.

EXPOcheck TM Shanghai, China's Expo 2010
Report 6-10-2008

EXPOcheck Reports

Expo 2010, Shanghai, China

BIE Sanctioned "Registered" Expo with Universal Characteristics
May 1 to October 31, 2010
Projected Attendance (Per Expo 2010)
70 million (380,000 per day)

EXPOcheck Facts and Figures - Sample

Average Case Scenario Estimate per WFDM - 50,577,000
Comparative History Node Estimate (Case 2, Kunming 1999) per WFDM - 89,729,000
Population Modifing Factor, Metro Region - 0.574

EXPOCHECK

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