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Red Letter Days
for a Baseball Fan

Non-Tender Deadline - December 2
Hall of Fame Veterans Committee Winners - December 8
Winter Meetings -
December 8-11
Hall of Fame Announcement - January 6

Player Salaries

Average Major League player salaries rose 8.2% in 2014 to a record $3.95m.  Highest team payroll the Dodgers, overtaking the Yankees for the first time in 15 years.  Average salary for Dodgers $7.8m.

The 2014 Payroll $
1. Dodgers    $ 241,129,402
2. Yankees    $ 208,913,884
3. Phillies    $ 175,136,056
4. Tigers    $ 161,478,526
5. Red Sox   $ 154,380,395
6. Giants    $  146,364,108
7. Nationals    $ 133,866,735
8. Rangers    $ 130,855,596
9.  Blue Jays    $ 128,917,500
10. Angels    $ 126,314,500
11. D'backs  $ 111,030,333
12. Braves    $ 109,455,673
13. Reds    $ 109,290,771
14. Cardinals    $ 107,020,360
15. Orioles    $ 102,022,621
16. Rockies    $ 100,082,071
17. Brewers    $97,374,338
18. Royals    $ 90,481,500
19. Padres    $ 89,092,595
20. Mariners    $ 88,227,342
21. Mets    $ 82,491,453
22. Twins    $ 81,912,500
23.  Rays    $ 81,535,290
24.  White Sox   $ 80,392,815
25.  Indians    $ 79,895,800
26.  Pirates    $ 77,284,499
27.  Athletics    $ 76,930,900
28.  Cubs    $ 71,674,356
29.  Astros    $ 44,485,800
30.  Marlins    $ 40,565,400

Stat Geek Baseball's
Payroll Tidbits

Ave. Salaries By Position 2014
Catcher - $2,620,961
1st Base - $6,886,792
2nd Base - $4,300,645
3rd Base - $3,474,321
Shortstop - $3,663,368
Outfield - $4,592,538
Pitcher - $3,532,706
All - $3,936,922

Ave. Salaries By Service Time 2014

Under 1.000 Year - $551,070
1.000-1.171 - $620,195
2.000-2.121 - $603,156
Super 2 - 3.171 - $2,398,041
4.000-4.171 - $3,415,175
5.000-5.171 - $5,792,824

Free Agent - 6.171 - $7,461,178
7.000-7.171 - $7,593,716
8.000-8.171 - $11,616,934
9.000-9.171 - $6,672,631
10.000-10.171 - $12,378,440
11.000-11.171 - $8,096,542
12.000-12.171 - $9,145,955
13.000-13.171 - $16,050,000
14.000-14.171 - $9,824,060
15.000-15.171 - $8,144,977
16.000 and over - $4,373,770

Note: Super Two level for 2014 season is 2.122.  Free Agent level is 6.000.

Super Two level for 2013 season was 2.139.  Free Agent level is 6.000.

Salary source: USA Today Salary Database.

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Baseball Evaluation Stats, Player Ratings, and Salary Projections

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Best Baseball Players Ever Top 100 Combining
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Contract News!!

Qualiifying offers by present teams to free agents, in order to get top draft picks if signed elsewhere, have risen 8.5% to $15.3 million.  This is up over the $14.1 million of last offseason and $13.3 million of 2012.  22 players received them last year and none accepted.

The Hot Stove League Contracts

Find out what's going on in contracts, what they've been paid, what they should have with the Stat Geek Baseball's SPRO Salary Projection system, and more.

Week of November 17

Free Agents
Billy Butler signs 3 year $30,000,000 contract with A's.
SPRO Analysis -
 Oakland pays market value for Butler.  Right on the money.  SPRO 3 years $29,780,000.

Russell Martin signs 5 year $82,000,000 contract with Blue Jays.
SPRO Analysis -
 Toronto overpays for Martin.  This is way out of line.  Yes, we known Martin just had his best season in his career, but it was his first plus starter year in five.  Plus he keeps having a slow decrease in games played and at age 32-37, that's not bound to turn in the other direction.  SPRO 4 years $47,749,000.

Re-signed with Club
Giancarlo Stanton signs 13 year $325,000,000 contract with Marlins.
SPRO Analysis -
 Miami overpays for Stanton.  If you could guarantee that Giancarlo would have the year he just had, on average, over the next 25 years, then yes, he would be worth it, but that's a big if.  Now, the years is just nuts to start with, but the second smaller legume is the fact that Stanton is currently on a $19 million per year (free agent years) pace over the course of his career.  Now we do think that his career will have a stronger trajectory than that, but we would have waited another year to hand out this large a contract.  We'd never go for that many years though.  SPRO 6 years $109,362,000.

Week of November 10

Free Agents
A.J. Burnett signs 1 year $8,500,000 contract with Pirates.  Unknown incentives.
SPRO Analysis -
 Pittsburgh pays market value for Burnett.  He turned down a $12.25m option with the Phillies to go back to Pittsburgh, and even though it seems odd to leave millions on the table, at least from a guaranteed standpoint, from Pittsburgh's, it's a solid deal because he's been durable.  SPRO $9,268,000.

Michael Cuddyer signs 2 year $21,000,000 contract with Mets.
SPRO Analysis -
 New York Mets overpay for Cuddyer.  Yes, we know what he batted over the past two years, in Colorado BTW, so discount as much as you'd like, but the concern here is durability.  He's been ping ponging heath, and at the age of 35, just where will that ball land.  Good thing is, this should be his trend okay year.  SPRO 2 yrs. $10,995,000.  SPRO likes durability.

Chris Young signs 1 year 2,500,000 contract with Yankees, including $3,825,000 in incentives..
SPRO Analysis -
 New York Yankees pay market value for Young.  SPRO $3,069,000, including incentives.

Re-signed with Club
Victor Martinez signs 4 year $70,000,000 contract with Tigers.
SPRO Analysis -
 Detroit pays market value for Martinez.  We wouldn't have gone the extra year, but the per years number is right in line with SPRO.  SPRO 3 years $52,206,000.

Re-signed with Club
Koji Uehara signs 2 year $18,000,000 contract with Red Sox.
SPRO Analysis -
 Boston pays market value for Uehara.  Might even be a bit of a bargain if David Robertson signs for the rumoured amount, but SPRO was okay with the two years deal, and even was okay with a third despite his age.  SPRO 2 years $20,745,000.

Week of October 20

Re-Signed With Team
Grady Sizemore signs 1 year $2,000,000 contract with Phillies with $3m performance incentives.
SPRO Analysis -
 Philadelphia overpays for Sizemore.  Even though the two early deals were for reasonable money, they still overpaid for Sizemore.  SPRO $1,398,000.  It's as if Philly is still on the bandwagon for adding older players when youth is where they should be going to fill out the roster.  Now Grady's not old, but he's not young either, so it's still a bit of a head scratcher unless other moves are on the way to get younger..

Jerome Williams signs 1 year $2,500,000 contract with Phillies with $1.5m performance incentives.
SPRO Analysis -
 Philadelphia pays market value for Williams.  Williams pitched much better for Philly in his stop there than the previous two in 2014, but this is a good deal for depth at starter.  SPRO $2,450,000.

Week of October 6

Re-Signed With Team
J.J. Hardy signs 3 year $40,000,000 contract with Orioles, including additional team option year.
SPRO Analysis -
 Baltimore overpays for Hardy.  Hardy is coming off one of his worst seasons in recent memory, even though still a steady shortstop on a team playing well.  But this is a case of remembering the past and not acknowledging the passing of time.  Hardy will be playing this contract out at 33-35 years of age after three straight declining years of performance with PEVA numbers for 2011-14 of (12.319, 11.247, 10.102, 7.333).  SPRO says 3 years $26,431,000.

Brian Wilson accepts player option of $9,500,000 for one year with Los Angeles Dodgers.
SPRO Analysis -
 Los Angeles overpays for Wilson.  You can't criticize the player for taking dollars that should never have been offered, so Wilson is getting a bonanza here, based on his last great season way back in 2010.  It's been that long since he's been worth this type of money.  At this point in his career, we're barely talking above minimum veteran production.  SPRO $941,000.

More SPRO contract comparisons

Baseball Evaluation

Hall of Fame Veterans Ballot

Managers Joe Torre, Tony La Russa, and Bobby Cox are elected in a unanimous vote by the Hall of Fame Expansion Era veterans ballot.  Former players now on the veterans ballot did not get the required 75% vote to gain election, including Dave Concepcion, Steve Garvey, Tommy John, Billy Martin, Ted Simmons, Dave Parker, and Dan Quisenberry.  The ballot for each former era is now held once every three years.

See where the player
candidates rank among Hall of Fame positions in the
Best Ever Book

Frank Baker

Elected to Hall of Fame
January 8, 2014

Greg Maddux 97.2%
Tom Glavine 91.9%
Frank Thomas 83.7%

Elected to the Hall of Fame, the three players which Baseball Evaluation thought would make it.  Craig Biggio just misses, with 74.8% of the 75.0% needed for election.

Others Close:
Mike Piazza 62.2%
Jack Morris 61.5%
Jeff Bagwell 54.3%
Tim Raines 46.1%
Roger Clemens 35.4%
Barry Bonds 34.7%
Lee Smith 29.9%
Curt Schilling 29.2%
Edgar Martinez 25.2%
Alan Trammel 20.8%
Mike Mussina 20.3%
Jeff Kent 15.2%
Fred McGriff 11.7%
Mark McGwire 11.0%
Larry Walker 10.7%
Don Mattingly 8.2%
Sammy Sosa 7.2%

Others who did not get the 5% needed to stay on the ballot next year

Moises Alou, Armando Benitez, Sean Casey, Ray Durham, Eric Gagne, Luis Gonzalez, Jacque Jones, Todd Jones, Paul Lo Duca, Hideo Nomo, Rafael Palmeiro, Kenny Rogers, Richie Sexson, J.T. Snow, Mike Timlin

Jack Morris was in his final year on the BBWAA ballot; will be eligible for Veterans ballot in 2016

Who, What, When of HOF Class
Stat Geek Baseball Blog

Hot Payroll Numbers
Actual Contracts Versus SPRO Projections

So how do the actual contracts given out to players during the past off season compare to our SPRO Salary Projections, both on the average and by maximum players per position.  Overall, the average salary of players on the rosters listed, 855 players overall, in the USA Today Salary Database on March 31, 2014 was $3,936,922.  SPRO projections were $3,583,053.

There has been a significant change over the past year in salary structure, adding approximately 10% to salaries, predominantly for free agent year players.  Most of this will play out over the next several years as national and local television contract increases filter down to the player level.

And how does it compare now to the highest players paid per position.

High Salary
Who Position High Salary
$17,000,000 Brian McCann C $18,176,000 Yadier Molina
$25,000,000 Ryan Howard 1B $24,000,000 Miguel Cabrera
$24,000,000 Robinson Cano 2B $19,148,000 Robinson Cano
$19,329,646 David Wright 3B $16,983,000 Adrian Beltre
$16,000,000 Jose Reyes SS $11,258,000 Troy Tulowitski
$21,250,000 Matt Kemp OF $19,518,000 Jose Bautista
$28,000,000 Zach Grienke P $24,000,000 Justin Verlander

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2014 Fantasy Baseball Rankings
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Rankings - #101-200

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Team Power Rankings 2014

1    Washington Nationals
2    Los Angeles Dodgers
3    Kansas City Royals
4    St. Louis Cardinals
5    Seattle Mariners
6    Cincinnati Reds
7    Oakland A's
8    Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
9    Baltimore Orioles
10    Atlanta Braves
11    San Francisco Giants
12    Cleveland Indians
13    Chicago Cubs
14    Tampa Bay Rays
15    Pittsburgh Pirates
16    San Diego Padres
17    Philadelphia Phillies
18    Miami Marlins
19    Milwaukee Brewers
20    Detroit Tigers
21    Boston Red Sox
22    New York Yankees
23    New York Mets
24    Toronto Blue Jays
25    Chicago White Sox
26    Houston Astros
27    Minnesota Twins
28    Texas Rangers
29    Arizona Diamondbacks
30    Colorado Rockies

1    Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
2    Detroit Tigers
3    Los Angeles Dodgers
4    Pittsburgh Pirates
5    Toronto Blue Jays
6    Cleveland Indians
7    Baltimore Orioles
8    San Francisco Giants
9    Miami Marlins
10    Milwaukee Brewers
11    Chicago White Sox
12    Colorado Rockies
13    Washington Nationals
14    Oakland A's
15    Atlanta Braves
16    St. Louis Cardinals
17    Seattle Mariners
18    New York Mets
19    Philadelphia Phillies
20    Kansas City Royals
21    Cincinnati Reds
22    Texas Rangers
23    New York Yankees
24    Minnesota Twins
25    Tampa Bay Rays
26    Houston Astros
27    Chicago Cubs
28    Boston Red Sox
29    Arizona Diamondbacks
30    San Diego Padres

More Team Power Rankings

Predictions 2014
American League Predictions 2014
National League Predictions 2014
PEVA Power Ranking Shuffle
Index 2014

Arbitration Player/Club Figures
Arbitration Checklist

Best Baseball Players Ever Top 100 Combining
Pitching & Hitting

Best Total Players Ever 1-20

We see in our site searches and are asked from Time to Time, How is PEVA Calculated?  Well, it's complicated and hard to explain.

While we don't get into the pure numbers, perhaps this series of short blog articles from several years back can give you a better view of how and why.

1. The Durability Categories and Why PEVA Values Them So Much

2. Run Production, a Dependent Stat that influences other Stats

3. Wins/Saves. How Do They Figure In

4. Independent Production

5. Pitching & the Defensive Factor

6. Field Value, Controversial Component

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Updated Best Ever Lists

Best Pitchers Ever Career
Best Batters Ever Career

Best Postseason Batting Careers
Best Postseason Pitching Careers

Franchise Best Ever Seasons

Best Ever Postseasons Bat
Best Ever Postseasons Pitch

Best Pitching Seasons
Best Relief Pitching Seasons
Best Batting Seasons

Now Read In the Stat Geek Baseball Blog

Hugh Duffy

Stat Geek Baseball Blog  

MLB News

New MLB Commissioner
Rob Manfred is elected as the 10th commissioner in MLB history when he was elected by the owners 8-14-2014 to succeed Bud Selig.  His election occurred on approximately the 6th ballot.

Forbes Magazine
announces that for 2014, the Yankees are the most valuable franchise in MLB at $2.5b; Dodgers 2nd at $2.088b and Tampa Bay last at $485m.

Understading MLB Options

Moving players from the Majors to the Minors can be a confusing thing for most fans, i.e. how long can a player on the 40 man roster be moved up and down without requiring waivers?  For the most part, a player may be moved up and down for three seasons once they are first placed on the 40 man roster.  That is, assigned to the minors from spring training through the year as many times as wanted for those 3 seasons.  A little known fact, however, is the 5 minor league season rule, allowing a player with less than 5 FULL minor league seasons a 4th year of options.  A full minor league season is defined as a season over 90 days long, i.e. not including short season leagues.

Player Salaries

2012-16 Collective Bargaining Agreement.  Payroll implications included $480,000 minimum salary in 2012, rising to $490,000 in 2013, then $500,000, with cost of living adjustments for 2015-16.  Qualifying offer now used to determine Type A Free Agents and draft pick compensation.  In first year with new system, a $13.3 million one year offer had to be offered to player to receive pick.

PEVA Player Rating Boxscore
32.000 - Fantastic
(Cy Young, MVP Candidate)
20.000 - Great
15.000 - All Star Caliber
10.000 - Good
3.500 - Average

First Year Player Draft

1    HOU    LHP Brady Aiken  
2    MIA    RHP Tyler Kolek  
3    CWS    LHP Carlos Rodon
4    CHC    C Kyle Schwarber  
5    MIN    SS Nick Gordon  
6    SEA    OF Alex Jackson
7    PHI    RHP Aaron Nola  
8    COL    LHP Kyle Freeland  
9    TOR    RHP Jeff Hoffman
10    NYM    OF Michael Conforto  
11    TOR    C Max Pentecost  
12    MIL    LHP Kodi Medeiros
13    SD    SS Trea Turner  
14    SF    RHP Tyler Beede  
15    LAA    LHP Sean Newcomb
16    ARI    RHP Touki Toussaint  
17    KC    LHP Brandon Finnegan  
18    WAS    RHP Erick Fedde  
19    CIN    RHP Nick Howard  
20    TB    1B Casey Gillaspie
21    CLE    OF Bradley Zimmer  
22    LAD    RHP Grant Holmes  
23    DET    OF Derek Hill
24    PIT    SS Cole Tucker  
25    OAK    3B Matt Chapman  
26    BOS    SS Michael Chavis
27    STL    RHP Luke Weaver  
28    KC    LHP Foster Griffin  
29    CIN    SS Alex Blandino
30    TEX    RHP Luis Ortiz  
31    CLE    LHP Justus Sheffield
32    ATL    OF Braxton Davidson  33    BOS    RHP Michael Kopech  
34    STL    RHP Jack Flaherty


Stat Geek Baseball, the Best Ever Book, 5th Edition
Stat Geek Baseball, the Best Ever Book, 5th Edition
Updated through the 2013 postseason
Evaluation Scoreboard
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Baseball Evaluation and all materials on this site are the 2014 Copyright and intellectual property of JDP ECON and their licensors.  All worldwide rights reserved.  The Baseball Evaluation system was developed independently of Major League Baseball and the Major League Baseball Players Association and is not endorsed by or associated in any way with either organization.

Note: All Baseball Evaluation Stats were developed by JDP Econ & are the proprietary property of JDP ECON. All rights reserved. If Baseball Evaluation stats are used in articles, etc., please credit  Historic baseball statistics were provided courtesy of the Sean Lahman Database and  Other statistic sources used include & the Chuck Roscium Catcher Database.
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